 | Delhi- Dhaka talks, how the dreams dieBy |
The Delhi Dhaka meet last night (September 6 2011) virtually came a cropper. It botched up two main issues -Teesta and Transit. Neither Bangladesh got Teesta water nor did we get transit facilities. Eight MoUs were signed on the subjects which were important of course, but certainly not as important as Teesta and Transit matters.
As it stands today we may say for West Bengal New Delhi sacrificed entire North East India's interest. But for this we have to look into and review the entire gamut of the issues and factors that relate to them. Most importantly, it was not only about North East India's opening to huge South Asian market and access to Indian heartland through seas. It is also about security and emerging geostrategic realties to which we cannot simply turn a blind eye. The botched Delhi Dhaka talks also have direct bearing on our much cherished Look East policy- which is virtually looking nowhere barring perhaps Indian initiative at Sittew port in Myanmar and in all intents and purpose a dead 'Ganga Mekong Cooperation' and at larger scale BIMSTEC dreams. On top of all, the Indian establishment's bungled up diplomatic efforts only help China
As it stands today we may say for West Bengal New Delhi sacrificed entire North East India's interest. But for this we have to look into and review the entire gamut of the issues and factors that relate to them. Most importantly, it was not only about North East India's opening to huge South Asian market and access to Indian heartland through seas. It is also about security and emerging geostrategic realties to which we cannot simply turn a blind eye. The botched Delhi Dhaka talks also have direct bearing on our much cherished Look East policy- which is virtually looking nowhere barring perhaps Indian initiative at Sittew port in Myanmar and in all intents and purpose a dead 'Ganga Mekong Cooperation' and at larger scale BIMSTEC dreams. On top of all, the Indian establishment's bungled up diplomatic efforts only help China
further strengthen its presence in our neighborhood.
It is, indeed, ironic that before Prime Minister, so many big wigs like Foreign Minister SM Krishna had gone there to discuss and formulate the policies to make his maiden Dhaka visit a success. The Delhi mandarins in reality failed to accomplish their tasks.
At the face it might look as if Mamata Banerjee threw the spanner with her political interest limited only to West Bengal. But if we read Dr Manmohan Singh's comment in July last that certain section of Bangladeshi population was under ISI influence and "25 percent"; people there anti-Indian, with the intransigence at which Delhi denied Dhaka of Teesta water, which they needed badly , only strengthens a suspicion that some people at the helm of affairs in the Union Government/ MEA had always been working with a fixed mindset- perhaps equating Bangladesh with Pakistan. They over the years had turned all our neighbors- if not direct enemy but certainly not a friendly nation. The last one left was Bangladesh under Awami League government. Mamata only played the second fiddle to those people, willy nilly. Or, how come it could be so that the Chief Minister of the state through which the Teesta flows down to Bangladesh was not shown the final draft and not taken into confidence. It smacks of a conspiracy.
Now, look at Bangladesh behavior. I found they were right in their decision. You just cannot expect a sovereign country would agree to whatever you ask, say here Transit and Chittagong port, without giving them what they deserved. It was a treatment equal. People in Delhi must now understand that you just cannot ignore or bully around a small country.
After her victory Sheikh Hasina first came to India and then went to China. It could be translated as her indication of preference. While in India she gave Ashuganj river port access to India for transporting Over Dimensional Cargo for Palatana power project being set up by ONGC ( OTPC) in South Tripura. This was Project specific clearance and indeed massive turbines came to the project via Ashuganj port from Kolkata.
Keep it in mind Bangladesh was even keen not to impose administrative fees for transit goods through it s territory which sparked off wild protests. According to International norms no country through which transit is given can impose customs or excise duties on goods on transit, but it can impose administrative fees. Bangladesh government, however, hit the hornet's nest when they indicated that they would not ask for transit fees as it would be 'uncivilized' for a neighboring country. This decision led to wild reaction among a section of Bangladeshi intelligentsia who cited example of Egypt that had imposed heavy fees on goods passing through Suez and earned millions of dollars. It was under this pressure Sheikh Hasina government had decided to form a core committee to look into the matter, by this time during Manmohan Singh's visit in Dhaka 'letter' on the issue would exchanged, a diplomatic step before formulation of legal instruments and SOP.
Sheikh Hasina had also assured New Delhi during her visit last year that anti Indian militants would not be allowed to use Bangladesh soil and, indeed, she handed over almost all senior NE militant leaders to India. She had done what she had promised despite being under severe political pressure from parties like BNP or Jamat. It was natural for her that she would be expecting some good will gesture from India. And they needed Teesta water badly.
How badly they needed Teesta water?
Teesta originated from Sikkim's So Lomo lake and then enters to Nilphamari district of Bangladesh through Jalpaiguri. It flowed down about 124 kms in Bangladesh and then joined Brahmaputra at Kurigram there. But before that it courses down about 45 kms criss crossing Rangpur, Lalmonirhat and Gaibandha -the areas that constitute 15-18 percent of rice and other crop yielding areas of Bangladesh- of which 63 percent needs irrigation from Teesta water. The area is populated by 8.5 percent of Bangladesh's total population.
India had constructed a dam at Gazalbad - about 25 kms from Siliguri controlling the water flow down to Bangladesh. And the end result is while in normal cases about 20,000 cubic feet per second - commonly termed as Cusec -water would have gone to Bangladesh but Dhaka claims they get only about 400 Cusec water during the dry season. Result is the area is facing serious irrigation crisis directly affecting Bangladesh's crop yield and population. It was already declared dry region-
Bangladesh to meet the situation had constructed a barrage at Dalia on down stream Teesta at Lalmonirhat through a canal network. But during dry spell Gazalabad dam controlling water flow turns this barrage meaningless. But when it rains and the Teesta swells Gazalabad sends down excess water that again causes floods in Bangladesh crop land and erodes banks.
When in March last year talks on Teesta water sharing did take place India proposed water sharing at 75 : 25 ratio. Bangladesh had demanded 50:50. Later , according to reports Dhaka settled for 52:42. But India was not ready. Mamata banerjee is reported to have agreed to share 30 percent.
But as it stands today, all initiatives fell through.
So what is next.
Hasina is seriously embarrassed and she will have to face her people. Who would simply ask : Well, you had given them Ashuganj port for their project and you had met their security concern. What they gave you ? And she will be going to polls in late 2013 or early 2014. Already in some local body elections her party suffered defeat.
On the other hand those anti-Indian parties would get a booster. Their campaign will be again simple : See, we always said India is a big bully who does not have any friend anywhere near her vicinity. This is the reason. And, it might to so happen that the Indian militants would seek to find a foothold again and Islamic terrorists from there with direct links with LeT would be further encouraged. They would simply identify this fiasco as the attitude of the Hindu Hindustan towards a predominantly muslim country.
Right at this moment West Bengal's interest was served. And Mamata Banerjee might be rejoicing. But interests of the entire North East -which means 262,230 sq. km. land and about 5 crores people and seven states were ignored.
For North East transit facilities through Bangladesh and access to Chittagong port - which is located only 75 kms from Sabrum southern most part of Tripura-for transshipment were of utmost important not only for trades and infrastructure developments but also for geo-strategic reasons. And apparently these geo-strategic components were not attached importance -with most media -talking sweet sounding bilateral and people to people relations and repeating those oft-spoken Indian roles for Bangladesh Liberation. Those sweetie talks apparently did neither ring so sweet nor strike the right chord.
Yes, Delhi agreed to provide duty-free access to the Indian market to 46 textile tariff lines, as per the request of Bangladesh, with immediate effect. Bangladesh had demanded 64 items for this. This is aimed at bridging the gap between trade imbalance between India and Bangladesh . And yes both sides settled the disputed land issues and that India agreed to finance 13 projects that involve $746 million, and two loan agreements involving about $41 million that were signed. The Indian Line of credit of $1 billion would entail 1.75 per cent interest per annum and it will be repaid in 20 years with five years' grace period. But all these are virtually India specific infrastructures and the financial assistance is not without interest- it is a loan.
Without detailing further what comes next for India. Answer is simple. The Dragon.
Now from last night ( September 6, 2011) who are the most happy persons ? Of course, Mamata Banerjee . But there more somewhere in Beijing. Not those in Delhi or Dhaka, or for that matter in Agartala or Guwahati.
It would now be a cat walk for China to come straight to our next door with many more offers and support and cooperation in critical matters including strategic infrastructures for Bangladesh. Their area of mutual cooperation and bilateral trades will be broadened further. It is already being said in Bangladesh that whatever India gave for infrastructure development those were all meant to meet Indian interest-including the line of credit. On the other hand Chinese support was more free and certainly far sighted for Beijing's interest.
.
Some examples as to how China had already made its inroad and given the tonight's debacle, it does not need a rocket scientist to feel that Bangladesh is now be more inclined to Beijing.
China has already emerged as bigger trading partner in Bangladesh and there are indications that Beijing would develop Chittagong port and Sonadia Deep sea port, 7 kms off Cox's Bazar there.
'We sought support from China to build Sonadia deep-sea port and Chittagong-Kunming Highway via Myanmar. Beijing has assured us of support in this regard,' Dr. Hasan Mahmud, the State Minister for Environment and Forests had said in 2010.
Apart from port development in Chittagong adjoining Tripura, a 900 kms tri-national highway from Kunming in Chittagong via Myanmar is already on the card. Last year, Myanmar also gave go ahead for the Kunming to Chittagong highway via its territory. Chittagong port handles about 92 per cent of Bangladesh's import-export trade and China coming to Chittagong with highway would only mean easy transportation of Chinese goods, and in cases military hardware, to Bangladesh as well as a quantum jump to Sino Bangla trade.
Two months later in March 2010, Sheikh Hasina went to China and both the countries discussed Beijing developing the Chittagong port.
For China, Chittagong port and Sonadia deep sea port would only add to Beijing's blue water strategy -'String of Pearls'- that already had Gwador in Pakistan, Hambantota in Sri Lanka, Kyakpiu in Myanmar, besides its reported presence in Hanggyi and Coco-Islands under its wings. On the other hand, Chinese presence in next door would have serious geo-strategic concern for India.
Besides, according to media reports Chinese energy consortium, Sinopec Shengli Oilfield Services, has already partnered with Bangladeshi state-owned firm Bapex, to explore four gas fields in the Chittagong Hill Tracts which is astride South and North Tripura districts.
China is also helping Bangladesh in some critical infrastructure development including nuclear power plant. Only on 9 June last, Dhaka signed a loan agreement worth US$211 million with the Export-Import Bank of China to upgrade the Bangladesh's telecommunications network.
One year ago China and Bangladesh also signed agreements for Beijing's financial assistance and expertise to support Dhaka to launch their first space satellite. China also pledged help Dhaka to build the 600-1000 MW Pabna nuclear power plant with a US$1.5 billion Chinese loan at concession, besides, development of Pagla water treatment plant and Shahjalal fertilizer factory. They would also construct seven important bridges for them.
Chinese trades and cooperation in Bangladesh had showed a steady upward turn since 2007. According to Bangladesh Board of Investment, till late 2010 as many as 55 Chinese businesses houses submitted 186 investment proposals in the infrastructure and trades that might touch around US$320 million.
One must also keep in mind that Bangladesh's tilt towards China virtually began during Begum Khaleda Zia's BNP tenure in Dhaka. Now, after the debacle suffered in the Dhaka, India will find Sheikh Hasina is also left with no other option to go the China way only.
It is indeed ironic that this China had opposed to Bangladesh Liberation War led by Sheikh Hasina's father Sheikh Mujibur Rehman.
While of course it would their domestic policy now, and Bangladesh government would whatever they would feel better, we can only ask our mandarins in New Delhi, forget about revival of Ganga-Mekon Cooperation ... where our own Look East policy stands now ?
It is, indeed, ironic that before Prime Minister, so many big wigs like Foreign Minister SM Krishna had gone there to discuss and formulate the policies to make his maiden Dhaka visit a success. The Delhi mandarins in reality failed to accomplish their tasks.
At the face it might look as if Mamata Banerjee threw the spanner with her political interest limited only to West Bengal. But if we read Dr Manmohan Singh's comment in July last that certain section of Bangladeshi population was under ISI influence and "25 percent"; people there anti-Indian, with the intransigence at which Delhi denied Dhaka of Teesta water, which they needed badly , only strengthens a suspicion that some people at the helm of affairs in the Union Government/ MEA had always been working with a fixed mindset- perhaps equating Bangladesh with Pakistan. They over the years had turned all our neighbors- if not direct enemy but certainly not a friendly nation. The last one left was Bangladesh under Awami League government. Mamata only played the second fiddle to those people, willy nilly. Or, how come it could be so that the Chief Minister of the state through which the Teesta flows down to Bangladesh was not shown the final draft and not taken into confidence. It smacks of a conspiracy.
Now, look at Bangladesh behavior. I found they were right in their decision. You just cannot expect a sovereign country would agree to whatever you ask, say here Transit and Chittagong port, without giving them what they deserved. It was a treatment equal. People in Delhi must now understand that you just cannot ignore or bully around a small country.
After her victory Sheikh Hasina first came to India and then went to China. It could be translated as her indication of preference. While in India she gave Ashuganj river port access to India for transporting Over Dimensional Cargo for Palatana power project being set up by ONGC ( OTPC) in South Tripura. This was Project specific clearance and indeed massive turbines came to the project via Ashuganj port from Kolkata.
Keep it in mind Bangladesh was even keen not to impose administrative fees for transit goods through it s territory which sparked off wild protests. According to International norms no country through which transit is given can impose customs or excise duties on goods on transit, but it can impose administrative fees. Bangladesh government, however, hit the hornet's nest when they indicated that they would not ask for transit fees as it would be 'uncivilized' for a neighboring country. This decision led to wild reaction among a section of Bangladeshi intelligentsia who cited example of Egypt that had imposed heavy fees on goods passing through Suez and earned millions of dollars. It was under this pressure Sheikh Hasina government had decided to form a core committee to look into the matter, by this time during Manmohan Singh's visit in Dhaka 'letter' on the issue would exchanged, a diplomatic step before formulation of legal instruments and SOP.
Sheikh Hasina had also assured New Delhi during her visit last year that anti Indian militants would not be allowed to use Bangladesh soil and, indeed, she handed over almost all senior NE militant leaders to India. She had done what she had promised despite being under severe political pressure from parties like BNP or Jamat. It was natural for her that she would be expecting some good will gesture from India. And they needed Teesta water badly.
How badly they needed Teesta water?
Teesta originated from Sikkim's So Lomo lake and then enters to Nilphamari district of Bangladesh through Jalpaiguri. It flowed down about 124 kms in Bangladesh and then joined Brahmaputra at Kurigram there. But before that it courses down about 45 kms criss crossing Rangpur, Lalmonirhat and Gaibandha -the areas that constitute 15-18 percent of rice and other crop yielding areas of Bangladesh- of which 63 percent needs irrigation from Teesta water. The area is populated by 8.5 percent of Bangladesh's total population.
India had constructed a dam at Gazalbad - about 25 kms from Siliguri controlling the water flow down to Bangladesh. And the end result is while in normal cases about 20,000 cubic feet per second - commonly termed as Cusec -water would have gone to Bangladesh but Dhaka claims they get only about 400 Cusec water during the dry season. Result is the area is facing serious irrigation crisis directly affecting Bangladesh's crop yield and population. It was already declared dry region-
Bangladesh to meet the situation had constructed a barrage at Dalia on down stream Teesta at Lalmonirhat through a canal network. But during dry spell Gazalabad dam controlling water flow turns this barrage meaningless. But when it rains and the Teesta swells Gazalabad sends down excess water that again causes floods in Bangladesh crop land and erodes banks.
When in March last year talks on Teesta water sharing did take place India proposed water sharing at 75 : 25 ratio. Bangladesh had demanded 50:50. Later , according to reports Dhaka settled for 52:42. But India was not ready. Mamata banerjee is reported to have agreed to share 30 percent.
But as it stands today, all initiatives fell through.
So what is next.
Hasina is seriously embarrassed and she will have to face her people. Who would simply ask : Well, you had given them Ashuganj port for their project and you had met their security concern. What they gave you ? And she will be going to polls in late 2013 or early 2014. Already in some local body elections her party suffered defeat.
On the other hand those anti-Indian parties would get a booster. Their campaign will be again simple : See, we always said India is a big bully who does not have any friend anywhere near her vicinity. This is the reason. And, it might to so happen that the Indian militants would seek to find a foothold again and Islamic terrorists from there with direct links with LeT would be further encouraged. They would simply identify this fiasco as the attitude of the Hindu Hindustan towards a predominantly muslim country.
Right at this moment West Bengal's interest was served. And Mamata Banerjee might be rejoicing. But interests of the entire North East -which means 262,230 sq. km. land and about 5 crores people and seven states were ignored.
For North East transit facilities through Bangladesh and access to Chittagong port - which is located only 75 kms from Sabrum southern most part of Tripura-for transshipment were of utmost important not only for trades and infrastructure developments but also for geo-strategic reasons. And apparently these geo-strategic components were not attached importance -with most media -talking sweet sounding bilateral and people to people relations and repeating those oft-spoken Indian roles for Bangladesh Liberation. Those sweetie talks apparently did neither ring so sweet nor strike the right chord.
Yes, Delhi agreed to provide duty-free access to the Indian market to 46 textile tariff lines, as per the request of Bangladesh, with immediate effect. Bangladesh had demanded 64 items for this. This is aimed at bridging the gap between trade imbalance between India and Bangladesh . And yes both sides settled the disputed land issues and that India agreed to finance 13 projects that involve $746 million, and two loan agreements involving about $41 million that were signed. The Indian Line of credit of $1 billion would entail 1.75 per cent interest per annum and it will be repaid in 20 years with five years' grace period. But all these are virtually India specific infrastructures and the financial assistance is not without interest- it is a loan.
Without detailing further what comes next for India. Answer is simple. The Dragon.
Now from last night ( September 6, 2011) who are the most happy persons ? Of course, Mamata Banerjee . But there more somewhere in Beijing. Not those in Delhi or Dhaka, or for that matter in Agartala or Guwahati.
It would now be a cat walk for China to come straight to our next door with many more offers and support and cooperation in critical matters including strategic infrastructures for Bangladesh. Their area of mutual cooperation and bilateral trades will be broadened further. It is already being said in Bangladesh that whatever India gave for infrastructure development those were all meant to meet Indian interest-including the line of credit. On the other hand Chinese support was more free and certainly far sighted for Beijing's interest.
.
Some examples as to how China had already made its inroad and given the tonight's debacle, it does not need a rocket scientist to feel that Bangladesh is now be more inclined to Beijing.
China has already emerged as bigger trading partner in Bangladesh and there are indications that Beijing would develop Chittagong port and Sonadia Deep sea port, 7 kms off Cox's Bazar there.
'We sought support from China to build Sonadia deep-sea port and Chittagong-Kunming Highway via Myanmar. Beijing has assured us of support in this regard,' Dr. Hasan Mahmud, the State Minister for Environment and Forests had said in 2010.
Apart from port development in Chittagong adjoining Tripura, a 900 kms tri-national highway from Kunming in Chittagong via Myanmar is already on the card. Last year, Myanmar also gave go ahead for the Kunming to Chittagong highway via its territory. Chittagong port handles about 92 per cent of Bangladesh's import-export trade and China coming to Chittagong with highway would only mean easy transportation of Chinese goods, and in cases military hardware, to Bangladesh as well as a quantum jump to Sino Bangla trade.
Two months later in March 2010, Sheikh Hasina went to China and both the countries discussed Beijing developing the Chittagong port.
For China, Chittagong port and Sonadia deep sea port would only add to Beijing's blue water strategy -'String of Pearls'- that already had Gwador in Pakistan, Hambantota in Sri Lanka, Kyakpiu in Myanmar, besides its reported presence in Hanggyi and Coco-Islands under its wings. On the other hand, Chinese presence in next door would have serious geo-strategic concern for India.
Besides, according to media reports Chinese energy consortium, Sinopec Shengli Oilfield Services, has already partnered with Bangladeshi state-owned firm Bapex, to explore four gas fields in the Chittagong Hill Tracts which is astride South and North Tripura districts.
China is also helping Bangladesh in some critical infrastructure development including nuclear power plant. Only on 9 June last, Dhaka signed a loan agreement worth US$211 million with the Export-Import Bank of China to upgrade the Bangladesh's telecommunications network.
One year ago China and Bangladesh also signed agreements for Beijing's financial assistance and expertise to support Dhaka to launch their first space satellite. China also pledged help Dhaka to build the 600-1000 MW Pabna nuclear power plant with a US$1.5 billion Chinese loan at concession, besides, development of Pagla water treatment plant and Shahjalal fertilizer factory. They would also construct seven important bridges for them.
Chinese trades and cooperation in Bangladesh had showed a steady upward turn since 2007. According to Bangladesh Board of Investment, till late 2010 as many as 55 Chinese businesses houses submitted 186 investment proposals in the infrastructure and trades that might touch around US$320 million.
One must also keep in mind that Bangladesh's tilt towards China virtually began during Begum Khaleda Zia's BNP tenure in Dhaka. Now, after the debacle suffered in the Dhaka, India will find Sheikh Hasina is also left with no other option to go the China way only.
It is indeed ironic that this China had opposed to Bangladesh Liberation War led by Sheikh Hasina's father Sheikh Mujibur Rehman.
While of course it would their domestic policy now, and Bangladesh government would whatever they would feel better, we can only ask our mandarins in New Delhi, forget about revival of Ganga-Mekon Cooperation ... where our own Look East policy stands now ?
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